18 Jul 2008

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY - 09 July - 04 August 2008

SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY09 July - 04 August 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 13 - 16 July and again 19 - 21 July.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on 09 July. A co-rotating interaction region is expected to influence the geomagnetic field on 10 July increasing activity levels to quiet to unsettled conditions. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective beginning 11 July and persist through 13 July. During this timeframe the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods possible on 12 July.

On 14 to 17 July activity levels are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels 18 to 21 July. Another recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected 22 to 23 July increasing activity levels to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active conditions possible on 23 July.

On 24 July activity levels are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position. Mostly quiet levels are expected 25 July through 04 August.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Most recent polar pass: NOAA-16
Center time 2008 Jul 18 1522 UT
Activity level 1
n = 0.77
Estimated time of new data: Not available




EI5IX

1 comment:

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